American Statistical Association
New York City
Metropolitan Area Chapter

Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Biostatistics Seminar Series

Jason Roy, Ph.D.
Professor and Chair
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology
Director of RUBIES
Co-Director, Center for Causal Inference
Rutgers University


In many modern applications, there is interest in predicting subject-specific functions of a variable over time. For example, we might want to know patient-specific trends in a biomarker over time. Modeling is needed if there is measurement error in the variable, or if gaps between data collection times is too wide. We propose a novel semiparametric model for the joint distribution of a continuous longitudinal outcome and the baseline covariates using an enriched Dirichlet process (EDP) prior. This joint model decomposes into subject-specific linear mixed models for the outcome given the covariates and simple marginals for the covariates. The nonparametric EDP prior is placed on the regression and spline coefficients, the error variance, and the parameters governing the predictor space. We predict the outcome at unobserved time points for subjects with data at other time points as well as for completely new subjects with covariates only. We find improved prediction over mixed models with Dirichlet process (DP) priors when there are a large number of covariates. Our method is demonstrated with electronic health records consisting of initiators of second-generation antipsychotic medications, which are known to increase the risk of diabetes. We use our model to predict laboratory values indicative of diabetes for each individual and assess incidence of suspected diabetes from the predicted dataset. Our model also serves as a functional clustering algorithm in which subjects are clustered into groups with similar longitudinal trajectories of the outcome over time.

Date: Wednesday, January 16, 2019
Time: 4:00 - 5:00 P.M.
Location: Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
485 Lexington Avenue
(Between 46th & 47th Streets)
2nd Floor, Conference Room B
New York, New York

**Outside visitors please email for building access. You must be on the security list to enter the floor.

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