American Statistical Association
New York City
Metropolitan Area Chapter

Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
Biostatistics Seminar


Andrew Vickers, Ph.D.
Associate Attending Research Methodologist
Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center

DECISION CURVE ANALYSIS:
A SIMPLE METHOD FOR EVALUATING DIAGNOSTIC AND PROGNOSTIC MODELS

Diagnostic and prognostic models are typically evaluated with measures of accuracy such as sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve. Such measures often tell us little or nothing about a models clinical value, such as its impact on number of cancers found or unnecessary biopsies avoided. Decision-analytic techniques may allow assessment of clinical outcomes but they generally require collection of additional information, such as patient preferences or costs of treatment. We developed a novel method decision curve analysis to overcome the drawbacks of traditional statistical and decision analysis.

In this talk, I will:

  • Give a simple introduction to decision curve analysis, showing some examples of its use;
  • Give a brief overview of software (written by Angel Serio) which implements decision curve analysis;
  • Describe recent methodological research on decision curve analysis including confidence intervals and correction for overfit.


    Date: Wednesday, February 28, 2007
    Time: 4:00 P.M. - 5:00 P.M.
    Location: Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
    Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
    307 East 63rd Street
    (between First and Second Avenues)
    3rd Floor Conference Room
    New York, New York
    Note: To gain access to the building, please follow the directions by the telephone in the foyer.

    RESERVATIONS ARE NOT REQUIRED


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