American Statistical Association
New York City
Metropolitan Area Chapter

Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
Biostatistics Seminar


Mithat Gönen, Ph.D.
Associate Attending Biostatistician
Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center

AN INDEX OF CALIBRATION FOR PREDICTIVE MODELS
WITH BINARY AND CENSORED DATA

Calibration refers to the agreement between model-predicted probabilities and observed frequencies. It is usually evaluated by grouping the predicted probabilities and computing the observed proportion for these groups. If predicted probabilities and observed proportions are on the 45-degree line then the model is properly calibrated. In this talk, I will present local regression as an alternative to grouping the predicted probabilities and discuss the use of the area between the local regression estimate and 45-degree line as an index of calibration. Examples will focus on logistic and Cox regression.


Date: Wednesday, May 30, 2007
Time: 4:00 P.M. - 5:00 P.M.
Location: Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
307 East 63rd Street
(between First and Second Avenues)
3rd Floor Conference Room
New York, New York
Note: To gain access to the building, please follow the directions by the telephone in the foyer.

RESERVATIONS ARE NOT REQUIRED


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