American Statistical Association
New York City
Metropolitan Area Chapter

Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics


Sean Devlin, Ph.D.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center

MEASURING THE TEMPORAL PROGNOSTIC
UTILITY OF A BASELINE RISK SCORE

The concordance probability is a common tool to assess the relative level of agreement between a model-based risk score and the survival time of a patient. While it provides a measure of discrimination over the entire follow-up period of a study, the probability does not provide information on the longitudinal durability of a baseline risk score. It is possible that a model is able to segregate short-term from long-term survivors but unable to maintain its discriminatory strength later in the follow-up period. As a consequence, this would motivate clinicians to re-evaluate the risk score longitudinally. This longitudinal re-evaluation may not, however, be feasible since a single baseline measurement may be the only data collectible due to treatment or other reasons. In these situations, an attenuation of the discriminatory power of the patient risk score over time would indicate decreased clinical utility and call into question whether this score should remain a prognostic tool at later time points. Working within the concordance probability paradigm, we propose a method to address this clinical scenario and evaluate the discriminatory power of a baseline derived risk score over time. The methodology is illustrated using a novel biomarker in metastatic prostate cancer.

This is joint work with Mithat Gönen and Glenn Heller.


Date: Wednesday, May 16, 2018
Time: 4:00 - 5:00 P.M.
Location: Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
485 Lexington Avenue
(Between 46th & 47th Streets)
2nd Floor, Conference Room B
New York, New York

**Outside visitors please email celeat@mskcc.org for building access. You must be on the security list to enter the floor.

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